Wednesday, February 22, 2006

The Inevitable Future

The scientists who created these high tech things that lead to the heaven scenario never thought about what would happen if everything went haywire. They didn’t think of the consequences. Some of the people that actually thought about what would happen are Bill Joy, Francis Fukuyama, and Baroness Susan Greenfield. These individuals have all created their version of the hell scenario for us. I’ve read all and agreed to all of their views, but I think I’m most passionate about Bill Joy’s hell scenario.
In the beginning, Bill Joy was a person who helped developed all of these new technologies, but in the end, he became afraid of it himself. He believes that the things that he helped create may one day become so powerful that it can reproduce on its own and have its own mind. He says, “Nanotechnology holds out the possibility of the ‘gray goo’ end-of-the-world scenario, in which devices too tough, too small, and too rapidly spreading to stop, suck everything vital our of all living things, reducing their husks to ashy mud in a matter of days.”
I believe that one day, if humans really did create smart robots to do everything by themselves, they will become really smart and will not need human programming. They will be able to reproduce by themselves and replicate more and more. Eventually, when this happens, it will be the end of the world because robots will inevitably be smarter than us. “…the genetically engineered pathogens, the super intelligent robots, the tiny nanotech assemblers and of course the computer viruses could create trillions more of themselves, vastly more unstoppable than mosquitoes bearing the worst plagues.”
It is still not too late to avoid this hell scenario. We can still prevent this from happening if we cease developing new technologies. If we stop developing new technologies that are too dangerous for us, then we will not have to worry about the hell scenario happening. Joy says, “The only realistic alternative I see is relinquishment,” he concluded, “to limit development of the technologies that are too dangerous, by limiting our pursuit of certain kinds of knowledge.”
Humans today already have the best technology. All of the nanotechnology and other advanced things that are being created are pretty redundant. People do not need these things to survive. They are just like optional add-ons to life. I mean, who needs a programmed housemaid robot when you can just go hire a real human being to do the chore? Even though humans do make mistakes sometimes, at least they’re actually alive and they can learn how to change. These new technologies just make humans lazier. Having your child become super smart is cool, but is it really them? It’s not their true self. It’s just the added chemicals in their body that’s doing all the work.
“It’s like death and taxes. We have this problem. It will get us.” The scientists who created these things are even sure if it’s really safe. I’ve mentioned before that if the injected nanobots go haywire in your body, there would be a high possibility that you will die. If we stopped all of these undeveloped technologies, we still have a chance to avoid the hell scenario. If you told scientists to just stop developing, of course they wouldn’t listen because they think differently. “Scientists do not believe they can do their work if they have to consider consequences.”
Joy believes that scientists and technologists must take clear responsibility for the consequences of their discoveries. In his scenario, if any program crashed, hundreds of millions of people would starve to death. I agree to this because by that time, all humans would probably be used to not doing anything naturally. They have probably lost all their farming abilities and rely solely on technology. If anything went wrong, “he predicted that America and Europe would have to undergo ‘mild’ food rationing within the decade.”
There are also others that believe they can avoid the hell scenario. John Seely Brown and Paul Duguid believe that it’s possibly to avoid the hell scenario. They say it takes work for defense and offense to co-evolve. No matter what Brown and Duguid say, it seems that Bill Joy will always think that the hell scenario is inevitable. Joy thinks that whatever bullets that humanity has dodged over the years is pure “luck.” Brown argues that for hundreds and thousands of years, humans have successfully created their own luck to avoid these bullets.
After reading all of these different scenarios, I believe I’m for the idea of the hell scenario. I think this scenario is inevitable. If we do not stop doing technologies that might hurt humans and the physical state of the planet, we will all be doomed. Everything mentioned in the hell scenario would slowly come true piece by piece. Humans should stop before its too late to go back.

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